"Mills will see short periods of rain, which will force them to stop crushing for a day, but they won't see a series of days of rain that would likely force them to shut down for the season," Oliveira said. He said that extremely heavy rains in cane growing regions of Minas Gerais and Goias had forced some mills in those states to shut down until April next season.
"I've spoken with some mills in Sao Paulo and they say they are planning to continue crushing until December 20, right before Christmas, before shutting down," he said. "That's unusually late." Last week, the sugar and ethanol industry association Unica reported that about 41 mills had already closed for the season compared with nearly 166 mills this time last year.
The center-south produced 1.74 million tonnes of sugar in the first half of November, 37 percent more than a year ago but well below the more than 3 million tonnes put out in any two weeks of August or September. The leading cane state of Sao Paulo, which accounts for 60 percent of Brazil's sugar and ethanol production, will likely only see occasional rains for the next three weeks. A cold front is expected to push through the cane belt over the weekend but Oliveira said it would not bring large volumes of moisture before moving on. "What we lack in rain now will come with force later. January, February and March will get above average rainfall. February looks like it will get a lot of rain," Oliveira said.